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      經濟繁榮時期,股市也會崩盤嗎?

      經濟繁榮時期,股市也會崩盤嗎?

      Ben Carlson 2021年03月24日
      通貨膨脹可能對股市有害,但很難想象投資者會在經濟繁榮時期拋售股票。

      很難相信僅僅在一年前,美國經濟還處于冰封狀態,隔離和封鎖也是常態。企業倒閉、學校關閉、供應鏈鎖閉,日常生活也封閉。因此,2020年的第二季度經歷了有記錄以來最嚴重的經濟萎縮,年化率為-34%。

      然而不知何故,我們現在正邁入經濟繁榮的軌道。

      高盛集團(Goldman Sachs)的分析師在最近的展望報告中預計2021年經濟增長8%,年底失業率為4%。他們認為,到2023年,失業率可能會低至3.2%。美國財政部部長珍妮特·耶倫表示,我們最早可能在明年重回充分就業的局面。

      當然,這一閃電般的轉變事出有因。美國政府通過斥資和發放大量資金來維持經濟運轉,數萬億美元已經流向企業、市政當局和個人,包括最近1.9萬億美元的經濟刺激計劃。

      所以,最近這次嚴重的經濟萎縮很可能會是美國歷史上最快的衰退,而政府的巨額斥資可能也會讓我們見證極其強勢的經濟復蘇。

      去年3月,投資者還在擔心再次出現經濟大蕭條(Great Depression)。然而現在隨著人們陸續接種疫苗,再結合政府大額支出、供應被限制和需求被壓抑這幾個因素,我們很有可能會迎來一波通脹飆升。

      另外,雖然通貨膨脹可能對股市有害,但很難想象投資者會在經濟繁榮時期拋售股票。

      經濟大好的時候,股市崩盤過嗎?

      這種情況很少見,但歷史上還真發生過。

      讓我們回到20世紀30年代,也就是GDP這一衡量指標誕生的時期。當時,美國的年均實際經濟增長率約為3%。股市并非經濟,但隨著時間的推移,GDP增長和市場之間存在一定聯系,特別是大幅增長的時候。

      這層關系并不完美,但我們可以看到實際GDP增長越快,股市的平均年回報率也會越高。

      平均值通常會掩蓋離群值,而這里的一個離群值是1937年。那一年的實際GDP增長率超過了5%,但標準普爾500指數(S&P 500)全年下跌了35%。不過,那一年股市嚴重下跌的原因是經濟在年底開始放緩,導致了一場持續到1938年的衰退。

      在股市下跌的情況下,最高速的經濟增長出現在1941年,當時GDP同比增長了兩位數,而標準普爾500指數一年來下跌了近11%。這是因為第二次世界大戰嚇壞了投資者。

      否則,在經濟增長如此之高的情況下,股市通常會出現強勁回報。在實際GDP增長達到8%及以上的11年中,有7年股市漲幅達到了兩位數。

      因此,股市在經濟繁榮時下跌的情況相對少見。

      不過考慮到當前的環境,我們也要注意一個預警。雖然股市很少在經濟繁榮時期下跌,但也很少在2020年這樣的嚴重衰退時期大漲。

      鑒于股市已經從2020年3月底觸底反彈近80%,投資者可能會做出“消息坐實就賣出”的反應。這一風險值得考慮在內。

      然而,我們可能處在自20世紀90年代以來最強勁的經濟環境之下,此時做空股市似乎是一個更具風險的主張。(財富中文網)

      本文作者本·卡爾森(Ben Carlson)是里薩茲財富管理公司(Ritholtz Wealth Management)機構資產管理部門的主任。作者可能持有文中提及的證券或資產。

      譯者:秦維奇

      很難相信僅僅在一年前,美國經濟還處于冰封狀態,隔離和封鎖也是常態。企業倒閉、學校關閉、供應鏈鎖閉,日常生活也封閉。因此,2020年的第二季度經歷了有記錄以來最嚴重的經濟萎縮,年化率為-34%。

      然而不知何故,我們現在正邁入經濟繁榮的軌道。

      高盛集團(Goldman Sachs)的分析師在最近的展望報告中預計2021年經濟增長8%,年底失業率為4%。他們認為,到2023年,失業率可能會低至3.2%。美國財政部部長珍妮特·耶倫表示,我們最早可能在明年重回充分就業的局面。

      當然,這一閃電般的轉變事出有因。美國政府通過斥資和發放大量資金來維持經濟運轉,數萬億美元已經流向企業、市政當局和個人,包括最近1.9萬億美元的經濟刺激計劃。

      所以,最近這次嚴重的經濟萎縮很可能會是美國歷史上最快的衰退,而政府的巨額斥資可能也會讓我們見證極其強勢的經濟復蘇。

      去年3月,投資者還在擔心再次出現經濟大蕭條(Great Depression)。然而現在隨著人們陸續接種疫苗,再結合政府大額支出、供應被限制和需求被壓抑這幾個因素,我們很有可能會迎來一波通脹飆升。

      另外,雖然通貨膨脹可能對股市有害,但很難想象投資者會在經濟繁榮時期拋售股票。

      經濟大好的時候,股市崩盤過嗎?

      這種情況很少見,但歷史上還真發生過。

      讓我們回到20世紀30年代,也就是GDP這一衡量指標誕生的時期。當時,美國的年均實際經濟增長率約為3%。股市并非經濟,但隨著時間的推移,GDP增長和市場之間存在一定聯系,特別是大幅增長的時候。

      這層關系并不完美,但我們可以看到實際GDP增長越快,股市的平均年回報率也會越高。

      平均值通常會掩蓋離群值,而這里的一個離群值是1937年。那一年的實際GDP增長率超過了5%,但標準普爾500指數(S&P 500)全年下跌了35%。不過,那一年股市嚴重下跌的原因是經濟在年底開始放緩,導致了一場持續到1938年的衰退。

      在股市下跌的情況下,最高速的經濟增長出現在1941年,當時GDP同比增長了兩位數,而標準普爾500指數一年來下跌了近11%。這是因為第二次世界大戰嚇壞了投資者。

      否則,在經濟增長如此之高的情況下,股市通常會出現強勁回報。在實際GDP增長達到8%及以上的11年中,有7年股市漲幅達到了兩位數。

      因此,股市在經濟繁榮時下跌的情況相對少見。

      不過考慮到當前的環境,我們也要注意一個預警。雖然股市很少在經濟繁榮時期下跌,但也很少在2020年這樣的嚴重衰退時期大漲。

      鑒于股市已經從2020年3月底觸底反彈近80%,投資者可能會做出“消息坐實就賣出”的反應。這一風險值得考慮在內。

      然而,我們可能處在自20世紀90年代以來最強勁的經濟環境之下,此時做空股市似乎是一個更具風險的主張。(財富中文網)

      本文作者本·卡爾森(Ben Carlson)是里薩茲財富管理公司(Ritholtz Wealth Management)機構資產管理部門的主任。作者可能持有文中提及的證券或資產。

      譯者:秦維奇

      It's hard to believe it was only a year ago that the economy was essentially put on ice. There were quarantines. Shutdowns. Closures of businesses, schools, supply chains, and our everyday way of life. This led to the worst quarterly economic contraction on record in the second quarter of 2020, clocking in at an annualized –34%.

      Yet somehow we are now on track for an economic boom.

      Goldman Sachs analysts said in a recent outlook piece they now expect 8% economic growth in 2021 and an unemployment rate of 4% by year-end. They think the unemployment rate could reach as low as 3.2% by 2023. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen thinks we could be back at full employment as early as next year.

      Of course, there is a reason for this lightning-quick turnaround. The government has helped keep things afloat by spending and sending out gobs of money. Trillions of dollars have been sent to businesses, municipalities, and individuals, including the most recent $1.9 trillion stimulus bill.

      So that enormous contraction was likely the fastest recession in U.S. history as well. And the sheer amount of government spending means we could see one of the biggest economic booms ever coming out of a downturn.

      Investors have now gone from worrying about the potential for another Great Depression last March to the biggest risk being an inflationary spike from a combination of government spending, supply constraints, and pent-up demand as people get vaccinated.

      Inflation can be harmful to the stock market, but it's hard to imagine investors selling their stocks in the midst of an economic boom.

      Has the stock market ever crashed as the economy soared?

      It's rare, but it has happened before.

      Going back to the 1930s, which is essentially when GDP as a metric was invented, real economic growth in the United States has averaged roughly 3% per year. The stock market is not the econo-my, but there is a relationship between GDP growth and the market over time, especially when growth is high.

      This is not a perfect relationship, but you can see the higher real GDP growth goes, the higher av-erage annual stock market returns tend to go.

      Averages can often hide outliers, and the one outlier here was 1937. Real GDP growth came in at over 5%, but the S&P 500 finished the year down 35%. However, one of the reasons stocks fell so hard that year is the economy began to slow by the end of the year, which led to a recession that lasted until 1938.

      The highest growth with a down stock market came in 1941 when GDP was up double digits year over year while the S&P 500 finished the year down almost 11%. This was an instance in which investors were spooked from World War II.

      Otherwise, stocks have generally seen strong returns when economic growth is so high. In seven out of the 11 years when real GDP growth was 8% or higher, the stock market was up double dig-its.

      So it's relatively rare for the stock market to fall concurrently with a booming economy.

      There is one caveat that may apply with today's environment though. While it's rare for the stock market to fall during a booming economy, it's also rare for the stock market to boom in the midst of a nasty recession like it did in 2020.

      There is the possibility of a “sell the news” reaction by investors now that the market is already up around 80% from the bottom in late March 2020. That is a risk worth considering.

      However, betting against the stock market against the backdrop of what could be the strongest economic environment since the 1990s seems like an even riskier proposition.

      Ben Carlson is the director of institutional asset management at Ritholtz Wealth Management. He may own securities or assets discussed in this piece.

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